100% ACCURATE INTRADAY TRADING SYSTEM

Nifty and Dow behaves on expected lines

2010-05-18T23:31:00.000+05:30

There is a problem: When my calls become too perfect, I have less Learners. As PRISM has evolved from 75% accuracy to 100% and specially last one year, I have been forced to hike my training fee which was once, not too long ago, Rs 3,500. But then, it was a 3 day affair and was not backed by daily calls and support.

Now after a 10 fold rise in 4 years, I am afraid I am driving off Learners who cannot afford my fees. But as my system makes Intraday trading look like child's play (I am getting a little carried away there), I am enthused to raise fees.

Last night I had said of an improvement in Dow with some 120 points rise to 10,660. It was achieved today and Dow went to around 10,690 or so before profit taking came in.

Similarly, my bullish outlook on Nifty was also realised, albeit after an initial scary fall. That fall also ended exactly at 5019, the level I gave to my Learners in the morning. I had said yesterday, below 5017 there will be disaster. Fortunately, Nifty recovered sharply from there.

While in yesterday blog I had said above 5075 was a buy, this morning a better level presented itself at 5063. However, my target of 5121 was not achieved today but my Learners were given 5110 as the first target. Nifty returned from 5107 which conforms to PRISM's +/- 3 points for >100 points bounce back.

Nifty has bounced up from around 5048 during late afternoon correction. This is Bull level and as long as it holds, Nifty will be targeting newer highs, once it has crossed above 5076 again.

Dow pointing towards revival

2010-05-17T23:46:00.000+05:30

Just now Dow broke out of an IHS and now the target is 10,660. Approx.

In case the target is not achieved, Dow will be doubly bearish and make new low.

The New Meltdown 2010?

2010-05-17T21:34:00.001+05:30

The last 2/3 weeks have been hectic. Coming back to Kolkata I was involved in training a guy from Jorhat, Asom. Didn't feel like writing the blog after a whole day of providing levels and buy/sell to my regulars intraday. And anyway, Nifty was falling to the levels I had already indicated so there was no need to repeat myself.

But today's morning fall was a game changer. Now we are in danger of breaking below 4919 and that will be a disaster.

Although the buy given was very accurate at 4982, Nifty took some time to recover and when it did, there was no lookback. I was expecting a minimum of 5032 which I had given to my Learners, the later upsurge came as a bonus. That it fell short of 5091 is a matter of some concern. I would be expecting to see 5121 if can successfully cross 5099. But then I am always a Bull. Chart showing more bearishness than bullish.

Nifty has made a bearish failure swing at 5218 and has declined 128 points (exactly the same it had made a valley on the way up: 5090 to 5218). So the bottom at 4962/3 was wholly expected. (5090-128=4962).

Now comes the question of WHERE TO NEXT?

Nifty has stopped at 30day MA. My Learners will remember what I had repatedly said during training. If price. on way to recovery, fails to cross MA, what is the immediate implication.

But also remember, today the recovery was over 100 points at one point. That comes from some very committed buying by bulls or bears squaring up. So tomorrow morning, I will advice my Learners to look for the simple tell-tale buy signal. I will help too. On the way up, Nifty has to cross above 5075. Failure will mean a Failure Swing and more downside. Then you have a selling opportunity near the 5070s.

A fall below 5029 can be BAD. Then we are looking at 5005, 4988 or even back to 4962 and below.

So buy above 5075 and sell below 5040, if you want to be very certain. But if market decides to move sideways you will be missing some profits by being too careful.

Learners: Nifty has gone down to 5043. V V Bull level was 5048. so you undestand the implication. If you don't, speak to me. I will, however, give you a scolding for forgetting such an important point first and then repeat my teaching. I can't put everything on Blog.

Nifty Stopped At Golden Level

2010-04-30T17:28:00.001+05:30

Yesterday was supposed to go to Sirsa, Haryana for training. Came back from station as had wrong ticket. Wrote the blog dt 29 April at night.

This morning, I sent message saying upward movement was dependent on breaking 5278. It did break and went up. But then I sent another message saying ".. must break above 5290.." as that was within +/- 2 of PRISM's Golden level. Sadly, Nifty went back from 5290. Earlier, Nifty had tried twice to break above Golden level in the morning, making 5288, 5287 and eventually 5290. It was stopped at the outer limit.

Earlier, my sell call at 5280 with target at 5267 was met.

Also note that right in the morning, I had given overall downwards target at 5260 and 5253 (last one Golden level again) as the morning correction had gone below PRISM's Bull level by 3 points, violating the +/- 2 points stipulation. I had messaged that once Nifty has made an extra 1 point low, it will come back to test the lower levels at 5260 and 5253. However, the bulls were in no mood to give up so easily and it took almost another 5 hours of meaningless ups and downs before Nifty touched 5253 almost near the end of the session.

This is the picture of last few days and note the fact that today Nifty has bounced up from the Golden level of its correction pertaining to the last main rally. That leaves us with a very simple task for Monday. If this Golden level holds, Nifty will again move up, temporarily at least, and we should be taking a long position at the sight of a Buy signal. If it breaks 5250, expect Nifty to go down to 5234 at least, with a slight chance of a stop over at 5244.

Have a great weekend :)

Is the bounce back sustainable?

2010-04-29T16:16:00.000+05:30

By morning 8-30 am on 28th April, I had infomred the Learners who are on the current list about the fall that was coming following Dow's 230 pt crash. While breaking 5296 was foregone conclusion, I wanted to see if 5250 would break or not. That would signal a further fall and my guidance in the morning after market opened was first 5238 and when it broke, 5217. The last pull back stage was at 5204. When that was broken by 6 points, Nifty was looking at 5166.

Now we are in a partucularly tricky situation. Whereas the system is showing a fall back to 5166, an IHS formation is pointing to an movement to 5308. The crucial test will be breaking 5278. In between, there will be several opportunities for profits.

Morning rush, whole day flush!

2010-04-26T15:16:00.003+05:30

That has been the pattern several weeks. First thing in the morning, Nifty opens 30/40/50 points high - once I think even 85 points - and then, throughout the day, the gains are erased as profit booking sets in.

One of my Learners complained the other day. "Nobody can make money these days on Nifty Futures."

Things are not THAT bad. If you are a PRISM trader, you already know the next level of Nifty once price begins to come down from 5346. Check out the first bottom and sell below that. In this case: 5330. Once the down move has been confirmed, calculate the Bear level. That is your minimum profit target. In this case: 5314. You can hold your position on as long as your level has not been reached. Once the level has been made, depending on the Nifty's next moves, you can now get a fix on Nifty's next level - up or down - and take a new position.

Let me explain with the chart.

The opening few minutes saw Nifty running up to 5346 - still 9 points below my target: 5355 - set 3 days ago.

As the chart shows, there was severe bear pressure at the top and the gains slowly slipped away over the next one hour or so to below 5326, the Very Very Bullish level as per PRISM system. Nifty declined to 5323, 1 point below PRISM's +/- 2 points parameter. This 1 point decline BELOW the Very Very Bullish level signalled the correction to be minimum of 5314 (which is the Bull level as per PRISM system).

Over the next several hours, Nifty made 3/4 aborted attempts to scale new highs but was thwartd at upward Bear level. Nifty at last touched 5314 and briefly went below the Bull level at the fag end of today's session. This has signalled another low for Nifty, to 5296 Golden level.

Sideways price movement fools us into making multiple trades, all leading to losses as price oscillates within a narrow range. Yesterday was one such day. The up-moves were not profitable - each being 7-8 points, max. 10. While the price ultimately reached Bull level - and even went below that - only a very die-hard kind of trader would have kept the short position going in face of such repeated bullish attempts to breakout.

Nifty Faltering

2010-04-23T13:11:00.004+05:30

Yesterday, Nifty made a smart move rising to 5341, just 14 points away from my prediction 5355 level made on 21 April.

The high food inflation level (17.65%) announced by the govt. took the market by unpleasant surprise as food inflation was on a slow fall and market was expecting a decline rather than a sharp rise. The result was a massive sell-off that saw Nifty crashing by 100 points.

This morning, the sharp early rise led to a jump back of price up to the Last level according to my PRISM system.

The traders made a neat 25/30 points.

Later, the sell came at 5303 and despite getting support at the Bull level for sometime, fell to Golden level, giving another 35 pt down move.

As I write the blog, Nifty has crossed the Bear level and looking at some up move as targets shown on the chart.

Will be off now as I have to travel now.

Nifty facing selling pressure

2010-04-22T10:28:00.005+05:30

Nifty opened sharply lower and went down till 5215 before recovering to 5234. However, only above 5249 Nifty will be bullish again with immeditae tyargets at 5264, 5289, 5296 and eventually, 5355.

Downside, 5165 is still a valid target as unfinished retracement. Which one will come first, the up move or the down move will be revealed in next 2/3 days I think.

Present scenario: A break above 5235 will be temporarily bullish and I would normally expect Nify to break above 5250.

The Intraday level which is crusial is now 5222 (+/- 2 points). Below that, the awaited Nifty down move will be realised.

Nifty Reluctant To Move Up: Targeting 5165 Again?

2010-04-22T10:06:00.001+05:30

Overall Nifty target remains 5165 in the lower level and 5355 at the higher end. Which one will come first will be revealed within 1/2 days I think.

The last rally went up to 5249. Today it opened sharply lower and at the time of writing, it made to around 5234 and corrected . Got a support at Golden level 5222 and went up.

Nifty has to break above 5250 to become bullish and targets will be: 5264, 5289, 5296.

Nifty showing strength after sell-off on 20 April

2010-04-21T10:18:00.005+05:30

Nifty has made it to 5264 (+/- 2 points as per PRISM system), just the level I said Nifty will reach after correcting from 5252. As 5254 was broken and Nifty made to 5255, next level which was golden level, 5264, was always on. A break to 5267 is now the new entry point.

IMPORTANTLY, NIFTY IS TARGETING HIGHER

The target for Nifty is now 5355. Leaners should be able to find out why and how. The above is 1 hr view of Nifty. As long as it doesn't fall below 5218, the upmove will be intact.

Short term scenario: Nifty will be targeting 5294 once it touches 5267/8. Keep that as new long entry point.

Nifty 20 April 2010

2010-04-20T10:15:00.008+05:30

Blogging after a long time. This is for my Learners to understand the levels and what the future holds.

Nifty had gone up (approx.) 5106 to 5398. Then came the correction. It fell to 5162 and now made a small recovery. Yesterday I had given levels of recovery to 5228 and 43. It went up to 5225/6 and fell but today the level was breached. Just now (10.27 am) it is hovering at 5235. 5243 being the Golden level, one can expect nifty to come back from there.

Nifty had meanwhile fell to 5162 which is just about the breakpoint of the last level and hence I am looking at a fall to 5106 back again and even below. Sorry.

However, at the same time, there is an outside chance for Nifty to climb above 5247 in which case we will be looking at 5262 or even 5293 again.

NET, NET, WE SHOULD SEE 5252 AT LEAST before Nifty goes for a correction again.

(All figures are for Nifty Futures, current)

JUST NOW OUT: RBI raises CRR, Repo and Reverse Repo rate by only 0.25% contrary to 1% expected. Should have bullish impact on the market.

This is NOT INTRADAY PROJECTION.

Readying for a blast...

2008-09-08T18:43:00.009+05:30

Fig. 1. Nifty (Click for a bigger view)

Today's (8 Sep 08) rally of 100 odd points in Nifty has confirmed my last blog's optimism.

1. Nifty has bounced back convincingly from it's 50% retracement level of 4209. It has also made a new upper top at 4561 but the sudden burst may lead to some sharp sell-off also.

2. But whatever be in the near term movement, Nifty has now made a very bullish pattern called Adam & Eve Inverted Head & Shoulder. This is pointing to a target of 5170 in the next few weeks.

Inverted (and otherwise) Head & Shoulder patterns are almost 100% perfect in accuracy. In fact, if you scroll down and read my old blog written in 2006 after a 3500 points sell off in Nifty, I had pointed to an Inverted H&S pattern and even as the majority of the analysts were pointing towards 8900 level in Sensex, I said I will bet on a level of a new high at 13,000 or similar.

Fig. 2. Sensex on 98% buy(Click here for bigger view)

3. The Sensex chart on weekly basis has made a 98% BUY signal as per PRISM system (Fig. 2). While Sensex chart is showing a bearish double top around 15125, once above this (if possible in tomorrow's trade will be ideal), Sensex would also race towards the last hurdle (immediate) at 15,600.

The bullish Inverted H&S pattern is pointing towards - hold your breadth - 17,085!!!

These levels are not exact but may vary a bit because the figures have been derived from weekly figures.

On short term basis though, a sell off at several points is still very much possible and is very likely to happen. Those who have been stuck at higher levels during April/May '08 will take advantage of every up-move to exit.

And also the worry about the bearish double top at 4650 that led to a sell-off only last month. Not to mention breaking above 4560 within a day or two.

Experts? Or beginners?

2008-08-31T17:25:00.022+05:30

I often wonder why investors and traders act so foolishly when it comes to making money from stock market.

1. They don't want to LEARN.

2. They still have the same age old idea: stock market is for speculation and it is just another form of gambling.

But can't blame them alone too. Learn from whom? Everybody these days claim to be an expert. Problem is, people will also not question whether the advisor is suitably QUALIFIED to provide advice. I have had so many learners having CA, CFA and even a few with MBA qualifications. But these qualifications don't make a stock market analyst. Specially if it comes to Intraday trading.

B they have been in the market for several years, some people consider them know-all, ignoring the fact that they have no formal structured learning of stock market operations and/or analysis. All they have picked up are from people who are similarly unqualified but more vocal.

And listening to the so called experts on TV leaves one with more confusion. They are evasive and always have two answers to every question: from economic conditions to individual stock price movements. Even rudimentary knowledge and regular reading of newspapers/watching business channels allow us that much understanding. Then why need an expert?

The other day at Goa, I was at a seminar organised by one gentleman from Pune on stock market technical analysis. At one point, he exclaimed that he had no idea why Nifty's recovery was capped at 4650. "It must be operators," he observed.

As I had been asking too many questions and disputing him on many points during his presentation, I felt actually embarrassed to point out to him that he had no idea of technical analysis. With some 50 odd people listening to him that would be a grave insult. So I kept mum. Incidentally, the gentleman had organised the seminar to sign-up participants for his technical analysis course next week for Rs 4,000. What would these people learn? Some textbook stuff that are anyway available freely on the Net.

As I charge Rs 12,000 for 3 days and Rs 17,500 for 6 days; that too for teaching a fraction of technical analysis, I don't really have anything to complain about. But then, my PRISM Intraday trading system ACTUALLY helps people make money in intraday trading. Learning technical analysis, per se, is worthless, especially for intraday trading. It doesn't work consistently. While 50% of the indicators signal a BUY, other 50% would signal a SELL.

For more about it, see www.DaytradingFunda.com

Anyway, let me now tell you why it fell back from 4650.

According to my retracement theory (slightly differs from textbook) I teach my trainees, price has to correct minimum of 50% of a rise or a fall. (What happens if it doesn't is another matter that only my paid learners will learn.)

See the chart. It is so apparent.

Click to view bigger

(Nifty Future levels) Nifty fell from 5271 to 3673, 1573, a fall of 1508 points. The bounce back had to be minimum 50% or 754 points. From 3763, that would give a target of 4517, which Nifty promptly reached.

Also, look at the next chart and see why price fell from 4650 level. Earlier, when Nifty was falling from 5270 level, there was a sharp sell off from 4650. See how fast and rapid the fall was, just as a cascading waterfall (you can label this fall as such). As such, when price came back again at that level, the sellers were back in action once more, pushing down Nifty once again.

Click to view bigger

In techincal terms, it is called a double top and is highly bearish in nature.

Incidentally, this level is also 50% of the retracement of Nifty's fall from 5553 on 4 February'08.

What is my reading of the present situation? I am inherently very bullish and have been maintaining that Nifty will scale back very soon. Time scale can be difficult to predict as whole lot of factors are influencing Nifty movements. But looking at some other indicators, my opinion is that there will be a mild recovery but not enough to take out 4650 in the next month or so.

Technically speaking, unless Nifty can pass 4660 on the upside, no upmove will be sustainable. Immediately, 4400 has to be crossed for a bounce back towards 4650 but next week, if the upmove comes, the strength will decide whether Nifty can breach 4660. Downside: below 4160 will push Nifty back towards 3960, breaking of which will lead to a new low.

Predicting up-move in a bear market is fraught with risk but I will guarantee that if Nifty breaks 4650 in September, it will be reaching 5500. Very very rapidly.

But remember, technical analysis is just a tool. It doesn't control the market. Market is moved by collective sentiments of the players. And sentiments are easily affected by news and events.
I will now try to be regular in updating my blog so do come back to see new posts. There is option here to allow you to be informed on new posting by me.

Arunangshu M Lahiri

BINDAAS! NIFTY TO RECOVER TO 3605.

2006-07-05T12:33:00.000+05:30

THE NEXT TARGET IS 3605. BET!

Not very many technical analysts will stake their reputation and stick their neck out on such audacious claim but the sign to me is unmistakable. Nifty is heading towards a slow but ultimately rewarding recovery to 3605 level.

Time span? That's the tricky question. But apparently, it is not going to happen in a hurry. The upmove from the bottom of 2595 has not been too bad. It has moved up around 600 points in 17 trading days - roughly 3.5 weeks. But it has not been spectacular also considering that 3 of those 17 days provided 200+ points to the upmove.

The basis of my fairly sanguine view is a very very visible - and large - head & shoulder pattern formed at the bottom. HS patterns are almost 100% infallible and is regarded as trend reversal pattern. HS forming at an upward rally spells doom for the uptrend and would signal the beginning of a downward correction leading possibly to a trend change. But an inverted HS forming an upside down pyramid at a downtrend signals a recovery and often in a change of trend.

I am keenly watching the scenario unfold. You can often come back to this page to find the lastest posting on Nifty's position.

With a series of strong plaforms below Friday's closing price of 3175, Nifty may move sluggishly sideways for a longish period before finally jumping up. On the downside, there are too many supports which should absorb selling pressures, unless some major negative happens.