The New Meltdown 2010?

The last 2/3 weeks have been hectic. Coming back to Kolkata I was involved in training a guy from Jorhat, Asom. Didn't feel like writing the blog after a whole day of providing levels and buy/sell to my regulars intraday. And anyway, Nifty was falling to the levels I had already indicated so there was no need to repeat myself.

But today's morning fall was a game changer. Now we are in danger of breaking below 4919  and that will be  a disaster.

Although the buy given was very accurate at 4982, Nifty took some time to recover and when it did, there was no lookback. I was expecting a minimum of 5032 which I had given to my Learners, the later upsurge came as a bonus. That it fell short of 5091 is a matter of some concern. I would be expecting to see 5121 if can successfully cross 5099. But then I am always a Bull. Chart showing more bearishness than bullish.

Nifty has made a bearish failure swing at 5218 and has declined 128 points (exactly the same it had made a valley on the way up: 5090 to 5218). So the bottom at 4962/3 was wholly expected. (5090-128=4962).

Now comes the question of WHERE TO NEXT?

Nifty has stopped at 30day MA. My Learners will remember what I had repatedly said during training. If price. on way to recovery, fails to cross MA, what is the immediate implication.

But also remember, today the recovery was over 100 points at one point. That comes from some very committed buying by bulls or bears squaring up. So tomorrow morning, I will advice my Learners to look for the simple tell-tale buy signal. I will help too. On the way up, Nifty has to cross above 5075. Failure will mean a Failure Swing and more downside. Then you have a selling opportunity near the 5070s.

A fall below 5029 can be BAD. Then we are looking at 5005, 4988 or even back to 4962 and below.

So buy above 5075 and sell below 5040, if you want to be very certain. But if market decides to move sideways you will be missing some profits by being too careful.

Learners: Nifty has gone down to 5043. V V Bull level was 5048. so you undestand the implication. If you don't, speak to me. I will, however, give you a scolding for forgetting such an important point first and then repeat my teaching. I can't put everything on Blog.