Monday, April 26, 2010

Morning rush, whole day flush!

That has been the pattern several weeks. First thing in the morning, Nifty opens 30/40/50 points high - once I think even 85 points - and then, throughout the day, the gains are erased as profit booking sets in.

One of my Learners complained the other day. "Nobody can make money these days on Nifty Futures."

Things are not THAT bad. If you are a PRISM trader, you already know the next level of Nifty once price begins to come down from 5346. Check out the first bottom and sell below that. In this case: 5330. Once the down move has been confirmed, calculate the Bear level. That is your minimum profit target. In this case: 5314. You can hold your position on as long as your level has not been reached. Once the level has been made, depending on the Nifty's next moves, you can now get a fix on Nifty's next level - up or down - and take a new position.

Let me explain with the chart.


The opening few minutes saw Nifty running up to 5346 - still 9 points below my target: 5355 - set 3 days ago.

As the chart shows, there was severe bear pressure at the top and the gains slowly slipped away over the next one hour or so to below 5326, the Very Very Bullish level as per PRISM system. Nifty declined to 5323, 1 point below PRISM's +/- 2 points parameter. This 1 point decline BELOW the Very Very Bullish level signalled the correction to be minimum of 5314 (which is the Bull level as per PRISM system).

Over the next several hours, Nifty made 3/4 aborted attempts to scale new highs but was thwartd at upward Bear level. Nifty at last touched 5314 and briefly went below the Bull level at the fag end of today's session. This has signalled another low for Nifty, to 5296 Golden level.

Sideways price movement fools us into making multiple trades, all leading to losses as price oscillates within a narrow range. Yesterday was one such day. The up-moves were not profitable - each being 7-8 points, max. 10. While the price ultimately reached Bull level - and even went below that - only a very die-hard kind of trader would have kept the short position going in face of such repeated bullish attempts to breakout.

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